Archive for January, 2009

The Fog of War – Lesson #6: Get the data

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McNamara joined Ford as an executive in 1946.  Ford did not have a market research organization when he joined, so he established one.  First, he tasked market research to determine who was buying the Volkswagon.  The buyers of these vehicles were clearly able to afford more and it occurred to McNamara that there was a segment of the market not being addressed by US auto manufacturers.  Ford introduced the Falcon as a more economical car which was highly profitable to Ford.

Next, McNamara tasked the market research group to obtain data and conduct analysis on accidents.  It was determined that the primary causes for accidents were human error and mechanical failure.  Cornell Aeronautical Labs advised Ford that the primary problem was packaging.  Anecdotally, they suggested that eggs are protected from breakage when placed on the kitchen counter due to intelligent packaging.  Ford determined that if they could package people in cars as intelligently as eggs were packaged they could save lives.  In the 1956 model, Ford introduced seatbelts which, ultimately, revolutionized automobile safety.

The Fog of War – Lesson #5: Proportionality should be a guideline in war

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McNamara suggests that General LeMay’s defense of his decision to firebomb so many Japanese cities would ask whether it would have been better to not have firebombed these cities and sent American soldiers to the shores of Japan to be slaughtered by the tens of thousands.

LeMay firebombed many other Japanese cities. The table below lists the city, the percentage of the city destroyed by fire, and the size equivalent US city.  (Source:  http://www.ditext.com/japan/napalm.html.  Accessed 2 Jan. 2009.)

Japanese
City
Destroyed (%) Size-Equivalent
US City
Yokohama 58 Cleveland
Tokyo 51 New York
Toyama 99 Chattanooga
Nagoya 40 Los Angeles
Osaka 35.1 Chicago
Nishinomiya 11.9 Cambridge
Siumonoseki 37.6 San Diego
Kure 41.9 Toledo
Kobe 55.7 Baltimore
Omuta 35.8 Miami
Wakayama 50 Salt Lake City
Kawasaki 36.2 Portland
Okayama 68.9 Long Beach
Yawata 21.2 San Antonio
Kagoshima 63.4 Richmond
Amagasaki 18.9 Jacksonville
Sasebo 41.4 Nashville
Moh 23.3 Spokane
Miyakonoio 26.5 Greensboro
Nobeoka 25.2 Augusta
Miyazaki 26.1 Davenport
Hbe 20.7 Utica
Saga 44.2 Waterloo
Imabari 63.9 Stockton
Matsuyama 64 Duluth
Fukui 86 Evansville
Tokushima 85.2 Ft. Wayne
Sakai 48.2 Forth Worth
Hachioji 65 Galveston
Kumamoto 31.2 Grand Rapids
Isezaki 56.7 Sioux Falls
Takamatsu 67.5 Knoxville
Akashi 50.2 Lexington
Fukuyama 80.9 Macon
Aomori 30 Montgomery
Okazaki 32.2 Lincoln
Oita 28.2 Saint Joseph
Hiratsuka 48.4 Battle Creek
Tokuyama 48.3 Butte
Yokkichi 33.6 Charlotte
Uhyamada 41.3 Columbus
Ogaki 39.5 Corpus Christi
Gifu 63.6 Des Moines
Shizuoka 66.1 Oklahoma City
Himeji 49.4 Peoria
Fukuoka 24.1 Rochester
Kochi 55.2 Sacramento
Shimizu 42 San Jose
Omura 33.1 Sante Fe
Chiba 41 Savannah
Ichinomiya 56.3 Sprinfield
Nara 69.3 Boston
Tsu 69.3 Topeka
Kuwana 75 Tucson
Toyohashi 61.9 Tulsa
Numazu 42.3 Waco
Chosi 44.2 Wheeling
Kofu 78.6 South Bend
Utsunomiya 43.7 Sioux City
Mito 68.9 Pontiac
Sendai 21.9 Omaha
Tsuruga 65.1 Middleton
Nagaoka 64.9 Madison
Hitachi 72 Little Rock
Kumagaya 55.1 Kenosha
Hamamatsu 60.3 Hartford
Maebashi 64.2 Wheeling

McNamara noted that these fire-bombings occurred before the nuclear bombs were dropped, and that the bombs were dropped under LeMay’s command.

“Proportionality should be a guideline in war. Killing 50% to 90% of the people of 67 Japanese cities and then bombing them with two nuclear bombs is not proportional, in the minds of some people, to the objectives we were trying to achieve.”

“I don’t fault Truman for dropping the nuclear bomb. The U.S.—Japanese War was one of the most brutal wars in all of human history — kamikaze pilots, suicide, unbelievable. What one can criticize is that the human race prior to that time — and today — has not really grappled with what are, I’ll call it, “the rules of war.” Was there a rule then that said you shouldn’t bomb, shouldn’t kill, shouldn’t burn to death 100,000 civilians in one night?

LeMay said, “If we’d lost the war, we’d all have been prosecuted as war criminals.” And I think he’s right. He, and I’d say I, were behaving as war criminals. LeMay recognized that what he was doing would be thought immoral if his side had lost. But what makes it immoral if you lose and not immoral if you win?”

The Fog of War – Lesson #4: Maximize efficiency

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Early in World War II, the B-29 bomber was developed to remedy some of the shortfalls of the B-17 and B-24. It was thought that this plane could destroy targets much more efficiently and effectively. Planes were flown from bases in Kansas to India. The bombers were then loaded with fuel in India and flown into China to Shang-tu to build up fuel stocks there. (Shang-tu was to be used as a mounting point for attacks against Yawata, Japan.) It turned out that, due to a lack of personnel training on maximizing efficiency, many of the B-29s were loaded with fuel for the return trip from Shang-tu to India. The entire effort “wasn’t worth a damn” and General Curtis LeMay quickly figured this out and transferred the operation to the Mariana Islands.

LeMay was, according to McNamara, focused solely on target destruction.

“He was the only person that I knew in the senior command of the Air Force who focused solely on the loss of his crews per unit of target destruction.”

It was LeMay who oversaw the horrific firebombing of Tokyo which killed more than 100,000 civilians. LeMay took the B-29s down to 5,000 feet and decided to bomb with firebombs — greatly increasing the effectiveness of these planes and their incendiaries. McNamara shared an anecdote of a pilot who returned from the firebombing of Tokyo in March of 1945 and complained that, by flying the mission so low to the ground his wingman had been lost to enemy fire. LeMay rebutted the pilot’s complaints by explaining that, while he lost one wingman, the mission had destroyed Tokyo.

“Tokyo was a wooden city, and when we dropped these firebombs, it just burned it.”

(Emphasis added.) Incidentally, the choice to use firebombs was also specifically LeMay’s decision — a further indication of his focus on maximized efficiency.

The Fog of War – Lesson #3: There’s something beyond one’s self

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While attending university, McNamara found himself excited to learn philosophy.

“I never heard of Plato and Aristotle before I became a freshman at Berkeley … I couldn’t wait to go to another class!”

A focus on philosophy, logic and ethics stressed values and a responsibility to society — “something beyond one’s self” — and rooted McNamara. He delighted in his marriage and family, and declared the early years of his new family as “some of the happiest days of our lives.”

The Fog of War – Lesson #2: Rationality will not save us

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It is difficult to summarize this lesson any better than McNamara did below (emphasis added):

“I want to say, and this is very important: at the end we lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war. We came that close to nuclear war at the end. Rational individuals: Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today.”

Poignantly, McNamara notes:

“The major lesson of the Cuban missile crisis is this: the indefinite combination of human fallibility and nuclear weapons will destroy nations.”

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